Significant discounts on completed unsold inventory of Bangkok condos will be required to attract prospective buyers and investors, as developers grapple with mounting pressure from loans totalling over 156 billion baht, due for repayment this year.

Frank Khan, executive director and department head of residential at property consultancy Knight Frank Thailand, said 2025 will be even more challenging for Bangkok’s condo market than last year.

“What we will see is an influx of unsold inventory entering the market,” he said. “Developers will lower prices and offer more promotions. Like last year, it will remain a buyer’s market.”

According to Prasert Taedullayasatit, president of the Thai Condominium Association, the total value of newly completed condo supply in Greater Bangkok reached 178.4 billion baht last year, and is projected to reach 140.6 billion baht in 2025.

Of that amount, a significant portion remained unsold. Additionally, among the sold units, not all will be transferred to buyers due to stricter mortgage lending rules imposed by banks amid a high level of household debt.

“The market’s ability to absorb this surplus remains uncertain,” Mr Prasert said earlier this year. “Developers, eager to generate revenue, are grappling with limited demand and challenges in issuing new debentures to refinance maturing ones.”

According to the financial statements of listed developers, their 2024 earnings reports reveal that at least 24 developers are currently holding condo inventory, with a combined long-term debt exceeding 156.4 billion baht that is set to mature within a year.

“This year, investors will be more aggressive in the market because inventory from developers will be released with significant discounts. The entire year will be like this,” Mr Khan predicted.

He said many condo developers have shifted to Phuket, where demand is more promising and driven by foreign buyers.

Many have also moved to the low-rise housing market, as they see the condo market facing challenging times.

However, luxury and super-luxury condos, as well as branded residences with prices ranging from 320,000-350,000 baht up to 400,000-500,000 baht per square metre, are performing very well.

According to Knight Frank Thailand, super-prime condos tallied approximately 6,500 units, while prime condos stood at 7,200 units. Both segments have achieved sales of over 80%, indicating strong performance.

However, the overall real estate market remains sluggish, with new project launches expected to fall this year due to high supply and declining purchasing power.

One factor that could help stimulate the market is the increase in the number of expatriates residing in Bangkok, which grew by 7.1% in 2024. 

The largest groups are from China (28%), the Philippines (25%), and Japan (14%). This trend may lead to growth in the rental market, potentially persuading investors to target condos in prime locations.

Additionally, the recovery of tourism could increase demand for long-term rental residences in select areas.

Nonetheless, the Bangkok condo market will need to be closely monitored, particularly in terms of economic trends and consumer purchasing power.