A model of a house on display at a recent house and condo fair in Bangkok. Somchai Poomlard

Prospective homebuyers are likely to benefit from attractive prices this year as developers are expected to scale back on new project launches and prioritise clearing unsold inventory to generate cash amid unfavourable market sentiment and intense competition.

Prasert Taedullayasatit, president of the Thai Condominium Association, said this year would be favourable for those who were ready to buy and transfer ownership, given the substantial supply set to be completed in 2025, valued at 140 billion baht.

"Of this amount, there is a significant volume of unsold supply," he said. "Developers are eager to generate cash by converting this unsold stock into revenue amid unfavourable market conditions."

In addition to the challenges of generating cash through residential transfers, developers will also be facing difficulties in repaying debentures set to expire this year due to the obstacles in issuing new debentures to replace the expired ones, he added.

Mr Prasert said total presales in Greater Bangkok last year declined by 31% to roughly 222 billion baht in the first nine months, which will affect transfers and revenue in the coming years, particularly in the condo segment.

Sorapong Jakteerungkul, an analyst at Kasikorn Securities Plc, said the housing sector in 2025 is expected to face significant challenges, particularly in the first half of the year, as strategies to clear inventory will continue.

"Sales performance in the fourth quarter of 2024 dragged down the full-year sales for 2024 year-on-year," he said.

"We estimate that the top 10 SET-listed developers we analysed will report combined sales of 52.9 billion baht in the fourth quarter of 2024, a 25% decline year-on-year and a 10% drop quarter-on-quarter."

These firms comprise AP Thailand, Britania, Land & Houses, LPN Development, Origin Property, Pruksa Holding, Quality Houses, SC Asset Corporation, Sansiri and Supalai.

Mr Sorapong said sales of both low-rise houses and condos are expected to decline year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter due to weak housing demand, stricter lending measures from financial institutions, and delays in project launches.

As a result, these companies' total sales for 2024 are projected to decrease by 13% to over 229 billion baht, representing 75% of their initial combined target.

With declining sales and intense competition putting pressure on profit margins, coupled with higher interest expenses, the profits of the 10 companies in the fourth quarter of 2024 are expected to drop by 18% year-on-year.

This is projected to lead to a 22% year-on-year drop in full-year 2024 profits to 28.8 billion baht, the lowest level since 2020, during the global impact of the Covid-19 pandemic, said Mr Sorapong.

"We believe the value of new project launches in 2025 will decrease significantly year-on-year, even though the value of new project launches in 2024 for the 10 companies, at over 261 billion baht, is 14% lower than the initial target," he said.