Bangkok's skyline viewed from the King Power Mahanakhon skyscraper in Sathon, a prime business district of the Thai capital.

After hitting bottom post-pandemic, Bangkok's condo market is set to rebound next year, with projects in outer areas continuing to perform well as existing stock is depleted because of price reductions by developers.

Sumitra Wongpakdee, managing director of property researcher Terra Media and Consulting, said the market across all price segments showed signs of recovery, though it is unlikely to reach pre-pandemic levels.

"Absorption rates are bottoming out after hitting the low point in 2021–22," she said.

"The primary factor driving this trend is the depletion of existing stock, as new supply in all segments has sharply declined."

However, growth is expected to be gradual rather than steep as purchasing power remains weak, dampened by high mortgage rejection rates, said Ms Sumitra.

The best-performing segment will be the mass market, with prices ranging between 80,000 and 150,000 baht per square metre, she said.

This segment had the highest growth in average absorption rates from 2021 to the third quarter of 2024, increasing 7% per year.

The absorption rate in the first nine months of 2024 for the mass segment rose to 11.6 units per project per month, up from 10.6 in 2023 and a low of 8.8 in 2022.

The luxury segment, with prices of 200,000 baht per sq m and higher, had the second-largest growth rate, rising 6% annually.

The absorption rate increased to 3.9 units per project per month in the first three quarters, up from 3.6 in 2023 and 3.0 in 2022, which was the lowest year for this segment.

The economy segment, priced at 80,000 baht per sq m and lower, had a 5% annual increase in absorption rates.

However, in the first nine months of 2024, the absorption rate dropped to 11.3 units per project per month from 12.8 in 2023, which rose from 10.4 in 2022.

The premium segment, ranging between 150,000 and 200,000 baht per sq m, had the slowest growth, with an average absorption rate increase of only 1% per year.

The absorption rate rebounded to 4.6 units per project per month in the first nine months of 2024, up from a low of 3.9 last year. This segment declined to 4.6 in 2021 from 6.4 in 2020 after peaking at 9.9 in 2019.

"This trend, where the mass market outperforms other segments, will likely continue in 2025," Ms Sumitra said.

"The majority of this segment will be in locations far from mass transit, but outer areas have affordable prices amid weak purchasing power."

In the first nine months of 2024, new condo supply in the economy segment tallied 13,000 units, compared with 26,000 units in 2023 and 34,000 units in 2022. The lowest level in recent years was 16,000 units in 2021.

The mass segment had 14,000 new units launched for the period, compared with 18,000 in 2023 and 20,000 in 2022. This segment expanded from only 8,000 units in 2021.

The premium segment had the lowest new supply, with only 600 units launched in the first nine months of 2024, compared with 3,100 units in 2023. However, its low point was in 2020, with only 400 units introduced.

"The decline in condo stock this year was driven by limited new supply and steady sales in certain segments," she said.

"A key driver was developers' willingness to lower prices to meet revenue targets and maintain cash flow, at the expense of reduced profits."